MUMBAI: SBI Research on Friday slashed growth forecasts for the current fiscal from 10.4 percent to 10.4 percent for the current fiscal year due to the continued rise in cases of corona virus infection in the country and the implementation of restrictions such as lockdown in several states.
The report, prepared by Bank’s Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, also suggested that vaccinating faster is economically cheaper than implementing full lockdown. In India, more than 3.34 lakh cases of Kovid-19 infection have been reported during the last 24 hours.
According to the report, the total cost of vaccination is 0.1 percent against GDP, while the lockdown has already resulted in a loss of 0.7 percent of GDP. The report states that from May 1, states are free to purchase vaccines directly from manufacturers, so it is estimated that the vaccination costs of 13 large states will be only 0.1 percent of their total GDP.
The biggest loss to Maharashtra,
Ghosh said, is much lower than the economic loss to GDP due to the lockdown, which has already been 0.7 percent. He further said that due to partial, local and weekend lockdowns in almost all the states, we are lowering our growth forecasts and the real GDP growth rate for FY 2021-22 can be 10.4 per cent and nominal GDP growth rate is 14.3 per cent. He said the loss is estimated to be around Rs 1.5 lakh crore from the limited lockdown, of which 80 per cent is held only by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and only 54 per cent by Maharashtra.
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